Investment market commentary
Commentary by Anne O’Doherty, Head of Life & Pensions
The third quarter of 2024 ended with healthy returns across most major asset classes. This was despite the investment landscape continuing to be marked by persistent uncertainty, as geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and fluctuating economic data all shaped market sentiment. Investor confidence remains fragile but the threat of recession both in Ireland and abroad has abated. However several other complex factors are causing both global and domestic markets to react, and volatility will continue.
Ireland’s economy remains resilient, and inflation has cooled slightly, thanks to easing energy prices and government interventions. The housing market remains a key issue, with supply constraints keeping property prices high. Despite ECB rate cuts, housing inflation has continued to soar. The recent Budget introduced a range of measures to support individuals and businesses alike, but it will be 2025 before any impact of these measures is felt in any way. The Irish stock market has seen mixed performance, with strong gains in the tech and pharma sectors but weaker consumer sentiment weighing on retail and services stocks. With a General Election on the horizon before Christmas, it will be interesting to see how this year ends.
Global equites rose to new all-time highs in the third quarter, but markets are contending with diverging economic trends. The U.S. economy has shown unexpected strength, bolstered by consumer spending and a tight labour market, although inflation remains stubborn. Closer to home, in Europe, growth is sluggish, with the ECB maintaining a cautious stance on interest rates amid persistent inflation concerns. China’s recovery has been slower than expected, as its property market struggles, and export demand weakens. These global dynamics have created volatility across asset classes, with investors grappling with the implications of this range of factors. With the US Presidential Election in November, often a catalyst for change, it will be interesting to see how the next quarter ends.
All in all, Quarter 3 ended strongly across the majority of asset classes with markets generally showing double digit year-to-date returns. But as we move towards the end of the year, investors should brace for continued volatility. Inflation and Central Bank policies remain key risks, and geopolitical uncertainties will also contribute to further market fluctuations. Despite all of this, we are positive about how the next 12-months will treat investors. As always, our messages remains that a well-diversified portfolio with a clear investment strategy is key to success as economic and financial market uncertainties persist.
If you would like some expert help with your financial planning and wealth management, please just contact us at Xeinadin Financial Services.
Key indicators
Economic stats – Ireland – year to year
Irish CPI Inflation | 2.4% |
ECB Base Rate | 3.25% |
Irish Unemployment Rate | 4.3% |
House Price Index | 10.1% |
Market equity index – 1 year
Eurostoxx 50 | 20.9% |
German DAX | 30.25% |
Euronext Dublin | 14.73% |
S&P 500 | 37.82% |
FTSE 100 | 11.83% |
Currency values
EURO/USD | €1 = $1.08 |
EURO/GBP | €1 = £0.83 |
Sources: Tradingeconomics.com / marketwatch.com
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